WPŁYW SZOKÓW NAFTOWYCH NA ASYMETRIĘ CYKLU KONIUNKTURALNEGO - ANALIZA PRZEŁĄCZNIKOWYCH MODELI MARKOWA DLA PAŃSTW UNII EUROPEJSKIEJ
Abstract
Summary
In the study the Markov-switching models with oil prices to analysis of business cycle asymmetries
were considered. We find evidence that business cycles in 1995-2014 were asymmetric
in France, Denmark, Poland, Czech Republic and European Union.
Key words: business cycle, asymmetry, Markov switching model, cointegration, skewness
References
Bibliografia
Brown, S. P. A., Yucel, M. K., Energy Prices and Aggregate Economic Activity and Interpretative
Survey, The Quarterly Review of Economic and Finance 2002, 42, 193-208.
Burbridge, J., & Harrison, A., Testing for the effects of oil-price rises using vector autoregression,
International Economic Review 1984, 25(1), 459-484.
Clements M. P., Krolzig H. M., Business cycle asymmetries: Characterization and testing based
on Markov-switching autoregression, Department of Economics, University of Warwick 2000.
Clements MP, Krolzig H-M., Can oil explain asymmetries in the US Business Cycle?, [w]
Advances in Markov-switching models, pod red. Hamilton J.D., Raj B., Springer, Berlin 2002.
Davis, S. J., Halitwanger, J., Sectoral Job Creation and Destruction Responses to Oil Price
Changes, Journal of Monetary Economics 2001, 48, 465-512.
Engle R. F., Granger C. W. J., Cointegration and Error Correction Representation. Estimation
and Testing, Econometrica 1987, 55, 251-276.
Gisser, M., & Goodwin, T.H., Crude oil and the macroeconomy: Tests of some popular notion,
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 1986, 18(1), 95-103.
Hamilton, J. D., Oil and the Macroeconomy Since World War II, Journal of Political Economy
, 91, 228-248.
Hamilton, J. D., This Is What Happened to Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship, Journal of
Monetary Economics 1996, 38, 215-220.
Lee K., Ni. S, Ratti R.A., On the Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: A Study Using Industry
Level Data, Journal of Monetary Economics 2002, 49(4), 823-852.
Lee, K., Ni, S., & Ratti, R.A., Oil shocks and the macroeconomy: The role of price variability,
Energy Journal 1995, 16(4), 39–56.
McQueen G., Thorley S., Asymmetric business cycle turning points, Journal of Monetary
Economics 1993, 31, 341-362.
Mork, K. A., Oil and the Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: an Extention of
Hamilton’s Results, Journal of Political Economy 1989, 91, 740-744.
Sichel D. E., Business cycle asymmetries, Economic Inquiry 1993, 31, 224-236.