KONDRATIEV’S CYCLES AFTER WORLD WAR II. CRISES OF THE 21ST CENTURY

Abstract

DOI: 10.19251/ne/2020.32(6)

In times of economic recession, answers are sought for questions about the coming crisis – its magnitude and potential effects. Business cycle theories explain the mechanisms that lead to crises. One of the main business cycles is the long Kondratiev cycle, which can explain the reasons for the recession from the beginning of the 21st century. The conclusions drawn from observations of short and medium business cycles after World War II, suggest that long Kondratiev cycles have also been deformed. In this article, the long cycles of Kondratiev after World War II are analyzed. The purpose of the work was to check if deformations also occurred in the Kondratiev cycles. The article also attempts to explain the stagnation of the economy at the beginning of the 21st century in the context of long cycles. The 2008 crisis turned out to be a breakthrough year for the Kondratiev cycle. In addition, the result of the work is the finding of cycle deformations regarding duration, phase amplitude or range.